Thursday, 13 November 2008

More from the oracle.

I've been rather busy for a while, so I haven't been posting here, but I have still been getting emails from the sibyl. I've got 3 more since I last posted, and I'm not sure what to make of them.

Here's the first:
Date: Sun, 9 Nov 2008 13:26:03 +0100
From: sybil.cumae@googlemail.com
To: sfwc@hotmail.com
Subject: I thought you might want to know...

World peace would be a good thing.
I didn't pay too much attention to this one when I first got it. I thought it was just a return to the simple truths of the earlier emails. I didn't notice the obvious problem until I read the next email:
Date: Tue, 11 Nov 2008 20:13:26 +0000
From: sybil.cumae@googlemail.com
To: sfwc@hotmail.com
Subject: I thought you might want to know...

The Badshahi Mosque is a beautiful building.
Again, my first reaction (after finding out what the Badshahi mosque is) was to accept this as a standard fact about the world, easily determinable by a wiki-search. Then I changed my mind. After all, whether a building is ugly or not isn't an objective fact; it is subjective. I guess that there are people somewhere who think this mosque isn't all it's cracked up to be. We don't have an objective standard we can go to to show that they are wrong: It's a matter of taste.

On the other hand, the emails from the sibyl have all been true (I've given up on explaining how) so I'd expect the content of this one to be true as well. Is the accuracy of the emails so far a good reason for me to accept the idea that there is an absolute aesthetic standard? Is it good enough to accept that the Badshahi mosque is (absolutely) beautiful? Is it better evidence than my own direct perception of that beauty in pictures of the mosque?

This train of thought led me to reevaluate my thinking about the previous email. After all, I don't normally ground my moral decisions in an objective moral standard. But for the content of that email to be true there would have to be such a standard. Is this good enough evidence for me to accept that some things are good in an absolute sense, or that world peace is one of those things? Is this a better reason to believe that world peace is good than my own direct perception of that fact?

Things got even worse this morning, when I got the following email:
Date: Thu, 13 Nov 2008 08:11:19 +0000
From: sybil.cumae@googlemail.com
To: sfwc@hotmail.com
Subject: I thought you might want to know...

Humans have souls, which survive the death of the body.
This is a statement for which (apart from this email) I had negligible evidence. Is the accuracy of the previous emails on matters of fact enough to make this email into good evidence of life after death?

I don't know quite how to think about these emails. First, I have no explanation for their earlier accuracy. Second, I have no idea whether or how far it is sensible to extrapolate that accuracy to statements about beauty, morality or spirituality.

Thursday, 6 November 2008

An extreme oddity.

Today I got yet another email from the sibyl, and it has completely freaked me out. It read as follows:
Date: Thu, 6 Nov 2008 07:37:41 +0000
From: sybil.cumae@googlemail.com
To: sfwc@hotmail.com
Subject: I thought you might want to know...

When you read this email you will have 3 20p coins in your pocket. Toss one of them 30 times and you will get the sequence THTHHHHHTHTTTTHTTHTTTTHHTTHTTT.
I had 3 20p coins in my pocket and I tossed one 30 times. I got exactly that sequence of heads and tails. The chance of this is less than 1 in a billion. There's no way any scammer, however sophisticated, could beat those odds. Dedicated googling has turned up no information at all about where these emails could be coming from. I can think of no explanation. Maybe I'm going mad.

Wednesday, 5 November 2008

A worrying development.

I've been avoiding checking my inbox for a couple of days, but today I finally had a look. I've only had one email from the sibyl, which was as follows:
Date: Mon, 3 Nov 2008 00:17:24 +0000
From: sybil.cumae@googlemail.com
To: sfwc@hotmail.com
Subject: I thought you might want to know...

When you read this email you will be wearing glasses, beige trousers, a black T-shirt, a brown patterned jumper and gray boxer shorts. You won't be wearing shoes or socks.
This prediction is spot on, but I'm not sure what it means. How do they know what colour my underwear is? Is this supposed to be some kind of veiled threat? In any case, if they know so much about me then they almost certainly read this blog. If so, I'd like to make the following statement:

I did not buy a lottery ticket, and I do not believe anybody has the ability to forecast lottery results. I cannot and will not reimburse you for any money you have expended in the course of your scam. If you threaten me in any way or ask for money from me, I will contact the police.

Sunday, 2 November 2008

The oddity again.

I've just had a look at the national lottery results from last night, and they matched the email from the sibyl. I guess this means that, if this is a scam, I'll soon be targeted. If I'm right in my guess about how the scam works then whoever is running it has lost a reasonable amount of money and is hoping to make it back from me. Of course, all of this is built on a tissue of conjectures which I'm now beginning to hope are false. I'm not really sure what to do; I need to take a little time to think.

Saturday, 1 November 2008

Reviewing ideas.

The second birthday book I read was a mini-tome called 'Ideas - A history', by Peter Watson. The aim of this book is to provide a condensed overview of the history of ideas and their development, and it does this in a remarkably thorough and wide-ranging way. I was enthralled with the scope of the development and continually surprised by two particular aspects of this history.

The first thing that struck me was how recent many of the ideas were. In particular, ideas that I hadn't recognised as such because I take them for granted are in some cases just a few thousand years old, or even less. For example, the key idea that we can distinguish between subjective and objective kinds of knowledge (on which I'll say more when I discuss one of the later books) seems to have sprung up in the last millenium, and the distinction between personal and physical explanations of events is almost as recent.

The second big surprise was the number of ideas involved in the development of things which I normally think of as individual ideas. A good example is writing, which is a skill I have known for so long that I did not realise how many ideas (apart from the obvious development of language itself) must be developed before it is possible. I can think of at least 12 steps:
  1. The use of tools external to the body.
  2. The preparation of tools in advance of when they are needed.
  3. Using the state of the tools as a memory aid.
  4. Creating tools to be used purely as memory aids.
  5. Drawing pictures as a reminder of the things they resemble.
  6. Associating the pictures with particular words.
  7. Representing abstract ideas by the pictures of words with similar sounds.
  8. Representing ordered strings of words (as from speech) through strings of pictures of the individual words of which they consist, to achieve a kind of frozen speech.
  9. Representing particular sounds consistently by abstract symbols.
  10. Developing conventions for which collections of symbols correspond to which words.
  11. Representing other aspects of speech via punctuation marks.
  12. The development of forms of language appropriate to written, rather than spoken, communication.
Each of these steps happened surprisingly recently. Further, although each seems trivial given (or even indistinguishable from) the last, the gaps between the developments of these ideas were remarkably long, being at least a generation in even the shortest case. The fact that this process was so painstaking makes it clear that we are currently missing some developments which, with hindsight, will seem equally obvious.

There were a couple of problems with the book, though. The first is related to the fact that the book is one of history, and often had to deal with periods about which we have very little evidence. In these cases, Watson would give the latest scholarly opinion, but without treating it as opinion. He reported it (in many cases) as if it were established fact. This meant that he was often reporting current, rather than past, ideas.

The second problem was the provincial focus of the later parts of the book. The only serious ideas mentioned for the last 800 years were from Europe and North America. Though other countries were mentioned, it was only in terms of what effect consideration of their cultures had on the West. It gave the impression that everyone else had been sitting on their hands for the last millenium.

Friday, 31 October 2008

The oddity explained.

I've continued to get odd emails from sybil.cumae. I've worked out where the name comes from (By the power of google!!). It seems that there was a mythical oracle called the Cumaean sibyl, about whom there are various legends. I guess this is a sidelong claim that the content of the emails is true. This isn't my only discovery, though. In fact, I now reckon I know what's going on, as I'll explain in a minute.

Although the emails are starting to get a little longer, they are still terse by comparison with other emails. I've started to enjoy getting them; it's fun to check the random odd facts, which are beginning to be a little more interesting, and introduce me to areas I wasn't aware of. A disproportionate number deal with mathematical facts, though, and I think I've finally found one email which is in error:
Date: Tue, 28 Oct 2008 09:59:25 +0000
From: sybil.cumae@googlemail.com
To: sfwc@hotmail.com
Subject: I thought you might want to know...

Any even integer greater than 2 is a sum of two primes.
This is, of course, the Goldbach conjecture. The reason it is called a conjecture is that, although it is widely believed to be true, nobody knows of any way to prove it. I guess whoever is researching the facts in the emails didn't do their homework properly.

However, the content of the email that has finally cleared up this whole mess was as follows:
The winning numbers in the UK national lottery lotto game on Saturday 1st November 2008 will be 18, 19, 25, 30, 33 and 43.
Of course, there is only one way to reliably predict such things in advance: The emails I've been getting are part of an elaborate 'football picks' scam. The way that this usually works is that letters or emails are sent out to (initially huge numbers of) victims with betting tips about who will win particular football matches. For each match, about half of the victims are told that each team will win. Of course, this means that a lot of incorrect predictions are made. Any victim to whom an incorrect prediction has been sent will be abandoned. Eventually, there will be a very small number of victims left, for each of whom all of the predictions so far have been correct.

All that any of these victims are aware of is the sequence of correct predictions which has been sent to them. So they think that the tipsters are giving sound advice. Playing on this mistake, the tipster contacts these victims offering to give further tips in return for a fee, now that their expertise has been 'demonstrated'. The victims pay the fee hoping to win their money back by gambling on the basis of the tips they are given. The tipster, no longer caring whether the victims win or lose, disappears with the fee. Something of this kind was the basis for Derren Brown's 'the System'.

This scam has now become rather well known, (even referenced in 'the Simpsons'), so that running it in this iterative way has become impractical. Accordingly, the scammers who are sending me these emails have modified it to make it less recognisable in at least three ways:
  • Numerous other, easy to obtain, facts are also sent. This encourages the user (me) to check those facts, and to imagine that that whoever is sending them has researched all of them. This subtly hides the fact that the final 'fact' is not researched at all.
  • All the eggs are put in one basket: Only one prediction (of lottery results) is made, but the prediction is improbable enough to be highly convincing. This removes the repeated predictions which are a giveaway for the usual scam.
  • I'm not completely certain about this last point, but it is rather likely. The chances of winning the lottery are about 1 in 14 million, and there are only 60 million people in the UK, so normally to pull this off the scammers would have to email about one person in four. Nobody I've spoken to is getting similar emails, so I think it is very unlikely that they have done so. Instead, my guess is that they have covered the numbers they didn't send by placing a bet on the results of this weeks lottery draw betting that none of their predictions were right.
I've worked out the numbers for this last point and I reckon it could be done. For example, they may have placed a bet of £100,000 that none of the numbers will be 25, thus reducing the number of people they must email to about 1.7 million, which is a much more manageable number (I'd guess about double this number were emailed to give the system some slack). If none of the numbers are 25, then they win their bet and so make a profit of about £14,000. Otherwise, they have lost £100,000 which they must recoup from somebody they have emailed. But one or two of the victims believe that they can predict lottery numbers (and may even have won) and will now be squeezed in the hopes of recouping the lost £100,000 together with a large profit. The money involved here is not precise: It can be scaled up or down depending on the resources available to the scammers and how much they think they can practically squeeze out of the victims.

Needless to say, I haven't bought a ticket.

Sunday, 26 October 2008

To swallow meditation...

Over the summer, I regularly attended a meditation class run by the Cambridge Buddhist Centre. Unfortunately, it clashes with the category theory seminars so I've had to stop. Each class lasted about an hour, and consisted of a short introductory talk (to let complete newcomers like me know what we would do) followed by about half an hour of meditation. The meditation was of two kinds: The 'mindfulness of breathing', in which we tried to be completely aware of our breathing, and the 'development of loving-kindness' in which we pictured a variety of people and tried to feel love for them.

These practices came out of a Buddhist tradition (the good folk at the Buddhist Centre claim that they were developed by the Buddha himself, but it doesn't really matter either way). In order to explain a bit about what they are about, I shall show my complete ignorance of Buddhism by talking about it a little. The first surprising thing about Buddhism is its diversity. The first big split seems to have come a few centuries after the death of the Buddha, when the Mahayana school split off. When Buddhism (mostly Mahayana, as far as I can tell) spread across Asia it mutated and incorporated local traditions and pantheons wherever it went, getting mixed up with Taoism and Bon and producing anything from the paradoxical Zen to the flamboyant Tibetan style. Each of these schools, and the many others, are further subdivided, in a way reminiscent of protestant denominational fertility gone wild.

I've followed this trend by producing my own slant on what the Buddha (or at least those who came up with the words attributed to him) was on about. What follows is by no means orthodox Buddhism of any kind, though the ideas it is based on mostly come from the Theravada school. Think of it as an improvisation in a Buddhist key.

As human beings, we are subject to persistent and pervasive delusion. One of the nastier aspects of this is that it is built into the way that we think, reason and communicate so that any attempt to deal with it is liable to suck us further into the quicksand. Here are several specific areas where we are deluded:
  • When we use language, we divide the world up into neat conceptual chunks. We'll see a building as a single entity, distinct from the rest of the world. This distinction is sensible, but it isn't as precise as we habitually assume. There are gaping grey areas. Is the furniture part of the building? What about the built-in furniture? The paint on the walls? The pictures on the walls? The hooks holding them up? The water pipes? The water? The limescale? The wiring? The light bulbs? The walls? The curtains? The windows? The holes in the walls in which the windows are placed? Some things (like the bricks in the walls) are a relatively stable part of the structure and change only rarely. Others (like the newspaper on the table) are replaced much more often and we don't count them as part of the building. In between it isn't so clear.

    In a sense, there's nothing wrong with this world-chunking: To an excellent approximation our environment can be divided up in this way. The division itself is no more of an illusion than is Newtonian physics; both are great approximations (though quantum theory suggests that the ladder of approximations never bottoms out in precision: The world is radically and ineradicably approximate). The illusion comes in when we forget that that is all that is going on, and see the divisions as precise rather than approximate. We imagine, for example, that there is some kind of clearly delineated 'substance' of the building, to which the various parts stand in some clear relation. We even conceptualise entities with no sensible physical correlate, such as rainbows, in this simplistic way.

  • The first problem is particularly serious for the way that we see ourselves. First, we are especially prone to seeing ourselves as simple coherent wholes, and to seeing our chunking of ourselves off from the rest of the world as exact. This is made all the worse by the fact that this approximation is much less sensible than many of the others that we make. I've discussed one aspect of this in a previous post. Essentially, the idea that 'me, right now' and 'me in a few years' correspond to different instances of the same self is no more than a useful convention.

    I must pause at this point to explain why this ambiguity of the self unifies the idea of reincarnation with the golden rule. The trouble with the idea of reincarnation, as with many hypotheses about life after death, is that we typically identify beings by the continuity in time of the bodies to which they are associated. The death and decomposition of the body prevent such identifications being made, so identifications of newly born beings with past dead beings seems arbitrary and unjustified. On the other hand, we have a habit of identifying various beings with the beings associated to the same bodies at slightly later times, or after a good night's sleep. There is a strand of Buddhist thought which emphasizes the arbitrariness of this by talking about life as a process of continual reincarnation, with every moment seen as a small death and rebirth, sleep seen as a more emphatic instance of the same, and death itself as a qualitatively similar process.

    This has moral implications. I've discussed morality already here, and this comment is an expansion on the third paragraph from the bottom. We have clear moral beliefs related to our own benefit; for example that pain is bad. In fact, these beliefs are mostly related not to ourselves as beings now, but to ourselves in the future: The beings that will in the future be associated to our bodies. But the identification of these beings as special is pure convention, and singling them out for special moral attention is so arbitrary that the conscience rebels against it. I've heard Buddhists argue that I should treat other beings ethically because (modulo reincarnation) they may be, for example, my mother. The perspective I have outlined is even more radical. I should love my neighbour as myself because (modulo a useful convention) they are myself.

  • Closely related to the above two problems is the way that we think about the words we use. We imagine that each word captures a clearly definable concept with some correlate in the world. A major activity in philosophy is exploring to what extent this is true. Alarmingly, many of the words we use (such as 'self', 'be', 'know', and so forth) don't have sensible definitions corresponding to the way that we naturally use them. This hasn't stopped some from mistakenly trying to find out what, for example, knowledge 'really is'. I'm told that pointing out and avoiding such mistakes was a big part of what Wittgenstein was doing later in his life, but this may be just a rumour; I've never checked.

  • Very often we find that the world is not as we wish it to be. Such problems are exacerbated by our habit of fooling ourselves into thinking that the world could be other than, in fact, it is. For example, if I break my arm, then I am likely to find myself imagining a world in which my arm is suddenly no longer broken as if it were possible, when it is not. Most of our desires (not all: Hunger and thirst are almost always free of this) are of this illusory form; when we desire a thing we imagine a world in which we possess that thing without undergoing the sacrifice necessary for that possession (if it is even possible).

  • Sometimes we desire the world to be different in a way that we can legitimately bring about. For example, you may want to own a TV, and be able to afford one. Even in these circumstances, however, our desires often fool us by presenting as possible a world in which we obtain the desired in an ideal way. You may ignore the fact that the television will break down soon enough, or that the image will jump when old motorbikes pass your house, or that the television will bring disappointment through expectation of programmes which you miss or which are over-hyped. When we desire a thing we imagine a world in which we possess that thing without the inconveniences (both trivial and serious) that follow from the nature of that thing.

  • We have the same blinkered attitude to the things that we already have and take joy in. We can not recognise without effort that they are transitory: Gone before you can say 'where moth and rust doth corrupt'. It is hard to enjoy a thing without imagining a world in which that thing is enduring and innocent of the inconveniences (both trivial and serious) that follow from the nature of that thing. There's a neat story illustrating a good attitude here: A man had a beautiful glass which he would often drink from. One of his friends asked him 'aren't you worried that if you use that glass all the time you will break it?'. Holding the glass up so that the light sparked intricately through it, the man replied 'I know that it is already broken. That is why I make such use of it.'

  • This mistake is also particularly serious for the way that we see ourselves and those we love. We do not recognise that we are transitory. Tomorrow we will not be the same as today, and the pleasure we have now will have passed. In a year or two we may be embarrassed by who we were, just as now we would be embarrassed at who we will become. As we grow older, our bodies and minds will gradually break down, until sooner or later they fail catastrophically in death. After that, we will be inaccessible to all who seek us. Those who love us will be left with small reminders of us which mock them with false hope. It is painful even to consider these things, and we typically simply ignore them. This cocoons us from seeing how precious our passing bounties are and multiplies our grief when they are inevitably lost.
These are just a few of the veins of illusion running through our minds. Even in talking about them I've had to use words and concepts, which introduce their own mirages. This all seems pretty hopeless and gloomy. However, the Buddha was extraordinarily optimistic about our ability to overcome all of this.

He claimed that it is possible to become free of all of this illusion, and to see the world as it is. So, for example, we would not see ourselves as simple unified souls, or distinguish ourselves fundamentally from other people. We would go beyond words by not attributing to them any power to divide up the world. Since the delusions we suffer are so fundamentally part of us, and form much of the way we conceptualise ourselves, this freeing can be thought of as a kind of loss of self, like the blowing out of a candle: An unlightenment, if you will. On the other hand, since much of what would be lost is associated to the 'autopilot' systems in our brains which guide us unthinkingly through daily life, there is also a strand of thought which sees this as a kind of awakening.

He also made some particular claims about the way to achieve this unlightenment, all of which were thoroughly practical. Over the years, Buddhists have come to think of this Way in sufficiently exalted terms to merit a capital W. Much of the Way consists in a particular style of living, modelled on how a person would live if they were unlightened. Much of this corresponds to sensible ethical teaching. Other bits of the Way concern meditation, and in particular meditation of the two kinds mentioned above.

The first good reason to do the 'mindfulness of breathing' meditation is that it is a simple context in which to attempt mindfulness; that is, a direct awareness of how a thing is without use of the usual mental filters and shortcuts. The breath is so comparatively simple and regular that it is a good place to start in attempting to see things as they really are. The second good reason comes from one of the direct effects of making such an attempt: Namely that you fail, and fail in a particular way. The mind becomes distracted, and thoughts of unrelated matters slip in unnoticed. Observing this process allows you to see how busy the mind is, and (to a small extent) in what its activity consists. Not only does this allow you to see how automatically illusory thought patterns are produced, it also reveals how inadequate our ideas of the self as simple and continuing are. Hume put it very well:
For my part, when I enter most intimately into what I call myself, I always stumble on some particular perception or other, of heat or cold, light or shade, love or hatred, pain or pleasure. I never can catch myself at any time without a perception, and never can observe any thing but the perception. When my perceptions are removed for any time, as by sound sleep, so long am I insensible of myself, and may truly be said not to exist. And were all my perceptions removed by death, and could I neither think, nor feel, nor see, nor love, nor hate, after the dissolution of my body, I should be entirely annihilated, nor do I conceive what is further requisite to make me a perfect nonentity. If any one, upon serious and unprejudiced reflection, thinks he has a different notion of himself, I must confess I can reason no longer with him. All I can allow him is, that he may be in the right as well as I, and that we are essentially different in this particular. He may, perhaps, perceive something simple and continued, which he calls himself; though I am certain there is no such principle in me.
The second kind of meditation is aimed at dealing particularly with the issues mentioned after the second bullet point above. The first part of the meditation (once you have settled down and relaxed) consists in regarding yourself, and exploring how it is that you love yourself. Then various other people are brought to mind (a friend, a passer-by and an enemy) in turn, and for each person you take the time to recognise that they are a person in the same way as you are, and explore how this allows you to love each of them in the same way. Finally, you regard all of these people together, and try to equalise up the love that you feel for them (and, of course, yourself) which of course involves seeing the distinctions between these various beings for the conventions that they are. This second meditation is therefore aimed at a particular illusion only, but one which there are strong ethical reasons for overcoming.

That is the theory, at least. Do these practices work? That is, do they lead people towards unlightenment (and, along the way, love of neighbour)? I don't know. The theory sounds plausible but so do many false theories. Tests so far have established that there is something going on (that is, meditation involves real structural mental change), but as far as I know they have not shown that these changes are as claimed. Since the claims seem perfectly testable, however, I'd be very much in favour of tests exploring whether meditation does what it says on the tin, and whether any other strategies are equally or even more effective.